Using accurate terminology is vital for understanding what is at stake during a major war. Hence, Ukraine’s armed struggle against Russia’s invasion is not simply a defensive operation or a “counteroffensive.” It is an existential war of national liberation through which Ukraine can succeed in expunging centuries of Russification and enforced assimilation. Americans should understand Ukraine’s predicament, as the United States itself was founded through liberation from the British Empire. Ukraine’s victory will also encourage other subject nations in Russia to aspire for independence.
Russia’s various state structures and ideologies, whether Czarist, Soviet, or Putinist, have viewed Ukraine as the cradle of its imperial pretensions. Moscow appropriated the Orthodox Church from ancient Kyiv, conquered territories and stole resources from its Slavic neighbors, murdered or deported Ukrainian elites, colonized Ukrainian cities, and perpetrated a genocide against millions of self-reliant Ukrainian farmers. The Kremlin launched an all-out war of conquest in February 2022, calculating that it could finally destroy Ukraine’s identity and independence while the West would not intervene because Ukraine was not a NATO member.
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However, the war has had the opposite effect of what Moscow intended. It has strengthened Ukrainian identity, bolstered Ukrainian social and national solidarity, highlighted Ukraine’s long history, and comprehensively alienated Ukrainians from Russians. It has also boosted domestic trust in government leaders, consolidated Ukrainian institutions, and further mobilized civil society in defense of Ukrainian democracy and independence. Moreover, the war has firmly placed Ukraine on the global map as a defender of human life, democracy, freedom, and independence.
The war has also bolstered the Ukrainian military. From a relatively small and inadequately armed force, Ukraine is developing an effective military that is adaptive, determined, and increasingly well organized, even though it has sustained significant losses and experienced a shortage of essential weapons. This is in stark contrast to Russia’s military, which may be larger and better armed but has proven deeply corrupt, brutalized, and internally conflicted, as is evident in constant power struggles and officer purges.
Ukraine will prevail in the war by expelling Russian forces from all of its territory as long as it receives all necessary military assistance, especially long-range missiles, modern tanks, sophisticated air-defense systems, and modern fighter aircraft. On a bipartisan basis, both the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives are urging the Biden administration to supply Kyiv with essential weapons to hasten Russia’s defeat, including F-16 fighter jets and long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems. The West should have been proactive a year ago in providing Ukraine with all the weapons it needed, and this would have saved many civilian lives. Moreover, if Ukraine had already been a NATO member like Poland or the Baltic states, Russia would not have attacked and risked a direct war with the U.S.
Ukraine’s national liberation will have resonance inside Russia itself. It will demonstrate that the Russian state is not impregnable, that the Russian military is not invincible, and that the Russian regime is actually losing territory to which it has historical pretensions. This can transform Ukraine into a model for indigenous nations that were also colonized by Russia, including Chechnya, Circassia, Ingushetia, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Dagestan, Tuva, Sakha, Kalmykia, and Buryatia.
Ukraine can also support the self-determination of large numbers of Ukrainians inside Russia’s borders who are rediscovering their heritage. This includes neighboring Kuban as well as several Ukrainian “wedges” in far-flung regions such as southern Siberia and the Far East. Ukrainians can play a major role in asserting the self-determination of regions seeking to abolish Moscow’s social oppression and resource exploitation. A new wave of national and regional liberation is on the horizon.
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Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book is Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. His forthcoming book is Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Strategic Player.